Severe drought on the Rhine has disrupted fuel oil transport and contributed to a build-up of stocks at coastal ports, according to Alkagesta Market Insights. The company’s outlook describes a split between rising inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub and shortages in inland European consumer markets as the fourth-quarter heating season begins.

Alkagesta reports that water-level readings at Kaub, a critical point for Rhine navigation, reached -5 cm on 1 October and 0 cm on 2 October. It characterises the low water as having paralysed Upper Rhine barge navigation. The disruption has constrained the movement of heavy refined products along the inland waterway, according to its assessment, leaving supplies concentrated at the coast rather than reaching inland markets.

The report identifies Shell Rheinland and MiRO Karlsruhe as major refining complexes affected by the restrictions. It gives their capacities as 190,000 barrels a day and 316,000 barrels a day respectively, and says barge loadings have been reduced by up to a third. Those figures refer to loading reductions; the source does not quantify any corresponding change in refinery production.

ARA fuel oil inventories reached 961,000 metric tonnes, which Alkagesta describes as an 18.5% week-on-week increase. The company also cites a stock level of 842,000 tonnes in its 8 September outlook. It presents the latest accumulation as evidence of the coastal-inland disconnect highlighted in that earlier assessment, with higher coastal availability coinciding with what it describes as severe inland physical supply deficits.

The outlook combines Alkagesta’s internal assessments with publicly available material. It says some numerical information draws on S&P Global Platts publications, but does not identify the origin of each figure. Alkagesta cautions that its analysis is informational, offers no guarantee of accuracy or completeness, and says future outcomes may differ from its expectations.

Source: Alkagesta Market Insights, https://alkagesta.com/fuel-oil-market-outlook-october-2026/